Characteristics of extreme heavy rainfall in northern China and its forecast and early warning operation

In recent years, The monsoon belt in China has shifted northward, leading to an increase in extreme heavy rainfall events in northern regions, each with distinct process characteristics. The resulting regional and mountain flood disasters show complex spatiotemporal variations, greatly increasing the difficulty of flood disaster prevention. Taking typical extreme heavy rainfall events in northern China as examples, this paper systematically summarizes their characteristics in intensity, duration and total precipitation, reveals the synoptic mechanisms and analyzes the existing problems and future development directions of current operational forecasting and early warning services for extreme heavy rainfall in China. The results can provide technical support for the development of forecasting and early warning services for extreme heavy precipitation processes and flood disaster prevention.