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    山区小流域降水集中特征年际动态及梅雨—台风归因研究

    Interannual dynamics of precipitation concentration characteristics in mountainous small watersheds and attribution analysis of plum rain-typhoon interactions

    • 摘要: 为破解大尺度降水研究难以支撑中小流域精细化管理的瓶颈,以温州平阳县顺溪流域为对象,基于2010—2021年降水数据,融合降水集中度(PCD)和降水集中期(PCP)指标,结合梅雨及台风数据,解析了梅雨—台风过程造成的降水时空格局年际差异。结果显示:①PCD年际变化显著,PCP呈阶段性波动,与大尺度气候振荡的潜在影响周期存在一定关联;②梅雨降水与台风降水贡献率呈弱负相关且年际波动明显,二者主导类型对降水集中特征起调控作用;③梅雨降水与台风降水贡献率比(MTI)与PCP显著负相关,梅雨主导年份的PCP集中于6月中旬、PCD稳定在0.35~0.45,而台风主导年份的PCP延迟至7月下旬。上述发现揭示了地形气候协同调控下中小流域降水集中特征的动态机制,为灾害预警和模型优化提供了关键阈值。

       

      Abstract: To solve the difficulty in supporting fine-grained management of small and medium-sized watersheds with large-scale rainfall research, this study focuses on the Shunxi Watershed in Pingyang County, Wenzhou City. Based on rainfall data from 2010 to 2021, it integrates the indicators of Precipitation Concentration Degree(PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period(PCP), combined with plum rain, and typhoon data, to analyze the interannual variability of rainfall spatiotemporal patterns caused by the plum rain—typhoon process. Results show:①The interannual variation of PCD is significant, while PCP exhibits periodic fluctuations, which are related to the potential impact cycles of large-scale climate oscillations;②The contribution rates of the plum rain and typhoons exhibit weak negative correlation with pronounced interannual fluctuations. The dominant type of either process regulates the characteristics of precipitation concentration;③The contribution ratio of plum rain and typhoons(MTI) showed a significant negative correlation with the peak rainfall timing. In plum rain-dominated years, peak rainfall occurred around mid-June, with stabilizing at 0.35~0.45, whereas in typhoon-dominated years, peak rainfall was delayed to late July. These findings reveal the dynamic mechanism governing rainfall concentration patterns in small-to-medium catchments under terrain-climate co-regulation, providing critical thresholds for disaster warning and model optimization.

       

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