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    王琢文, 赵云, 王瑶, 张小琴. 系统微分响应修正方法在浙江省永安溪流域洪水预报中的应用研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(8): 57-61, 82. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025208
    引用本文: 王琢文, 赵云, 王瑶, 张小琴. 系统微分响应修正方法在浙江省永安溪流域洪水预报中的应用研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(8): 57-61, 82. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025208
    WANG Zhuowen, ZHAO Yun, WANG Yao, ZHANG Xiaoqin. Application research of system differential response correction method in flood forecasting of Yong'an River Basin in Zhejiang Province[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(8): 57-61, 82. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025208
    Citation: WANG Zhuowen, ZHAO Yun, WANG Yao, ZHANG Xiaoqin. Application research of system differential response correction method in flood forecasting of Yong'an River Basin in Zhejiang Province[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(8): 57-61, 82. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025208

    系统微分响应修正方法在浙江省永安溪流域洪水预报中的应用研究

    Application research of system differential response correction method in flood forecasting of Yong'an River Basin in Zhejiang Province

    • 摘要: 洪水预报精度的提升对于流域防灾减灾至关重要,误差校正是提高洪水预报精度的关键。聚焦于浙江省永安溪流域,利用系统微分响应误差修正方法,通过新安江模型中分水源计算、坡地汇流和河道汇流系统进行产流误差反馈修正。采用2001—2023年17场洪水进行模型率定与验证,校正后率定期洪峰流量相对误差由6.2%降至4.6%,平均确定性系数由0.915提高至0.940,验证期洪峰流量相对误差由7.1%降至2.9%,平均纳什系数由0.934提高至0.959。研究表明系统微分响应修正方法能显著提高永安溪流域洪水预报精度,具有良好的应用效果。

       

      Abstract: The improvement of flood forecasting accuracy is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in river basins, and error correction is the key to improving flood forecasting accuracy. Focusing on Yong′an River in Zhejiang Province, using the system differential response error correction method, the feedback correction of runoff error is constructed through the calculation of water sources, slope confluence, and river confluence systems in the Xin′an River model. The model was calibrated and validated using 17 floods from 2001 to 2023. After correction, the relative error of peak flow rate decreased from 6.2% to 4.6%, and the average coefficient of certainty increased from 0.915 to 0.940. During the validation period, the relative error of peak flow rate decreased from 7.1% to 2.9%, and the average coefficient of certainty increased from 0.934 to 0.959. Research has shown that the system differential response correction method can significantly improve the accuracy of flood forecasting in the Yong′an River Basin and has good application effects.

       

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