收录期刊

    高级检索
    钱燕,蓝羽栖. 珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报方法探讨[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(11):17−22. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024356
    引用本文: 钱燕,蓝羽栖. 珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报方法探讨[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(11):17−22. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024356
    QIAN Yan,LAN Yuxi.Discussion on the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting method in dry seasons of the Pearl River Basin[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(11):17−22. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024356
    Citation: QIAN Yan,LAN Yuxi.Discussion on the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting method in dry seasons of the Pearl River Basin[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(11):17−22. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024356

    珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报方法探讨

    Discussion on the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting method in dry seasons of the Pearl River Basin

    • 摘要: 中长期水文预报是开展水量调度工作的重要环节之一。目前珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报的主要方法有6种,分别为历史演变法、均生函数法、周期均值迭加法、马尔科夫预测模型、多元逐步回归和随机森林模型。对珠江流域过去所有中长期水文预报方法进行归纳总结,介绍其基本概念及模型原理,结合实际对各种方法作进一步的讨论分析,以期提高中长期水文预报的精度。

       

      Abstract: The medium and long-term runoff forecast is one of the important parts of the water regulation. At present, there are 6 main methods applied to the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting in the Pearl River Basin in dry season, which are the historical evolution method, mean generation function, periodic mean superposition analysis, Markov forecasting model, multivariate stepwise regression and the random forest model. This paper summarizes all the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting methods in the the Pearl River basin in the past, introduces their basic concepts and model principles, and further discusses and analyzes various methods in combination with the actual situation to improve the accuracy of medium and long-term hydrological forecasting.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回