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    高旭蕊, 王协康, 雷声, 许小华. 基于多源数据的鄱阳湖流域极端降水与气温演变特征分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(8): 49-56, 72. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024317
    引用本文: 高旭蕊, 王协康, 雷声, 许小华. 基于多源数据的鄱阳湖流域极端降水与气温演变特征分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(8): 49-56, 72. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024317
    GAO Xurui, WANG Xiekang, LEI Sheng, XU Xiaohua. Analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature evolution characteristics in Poyang Lake Basin based on multi source data[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(8): 49-56, 72. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024317
    Citation: GAO Xurui, WANG Xiekang, LEI Sheng, XU Xiaohua. Analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature evolution characteristics in Poyang Lake Basin based on multi source data[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(8): 49-56, 72. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024317

    基于多源数据的鄱阳湖流域极端降水与气温演变特征分析

    Analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature evolution characteristics in Poyang Lake Basin based on multi source data

    • 摘要: 全球气候变化对不同区域的影响多样且复杂,大尺度流域气候水文要素研究能够揭示气候变化在具体区域的表现形式和影响机制,为制定区域性应对策略提供科学依据。鄱阳湖是长江的重要子流域之一,其水文变化直接影响长江的水量和水质。基于GEE(Google Earth Engine)平台获取鄱阳湖流域1981—2022年逐日降水、气温资料,选取10个降水指标和6个气温指标,利用线性倾向法、滑动均值法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对鄱阳湖流域降水与气温的时空变化特征进行分析。研究表明:1981—2022年鄱阳湖流域年降水量、汛期降水量不显著增加,常规降水天数不显著减少,但暴雨天数、暴雨量显著增加。降水在空间上呈东高西低、北高南低、由流域东北向西南方向减小的趋势。鄱阳湖流域气温呈变暖趋势,极端气温(最高、最低)年际变化剧烈,极端高温天数显著增加,低温天数减少。流域气温空间上呈中部高四周低特点,持续性气温指标空间变化剧烈,受地理位置因素影响较大。研究结果可增强对鄱阳湖流域水文循环特征及变化的认识,为气候变化影响下流域水资源管理和水旱灾害防御措施的制定提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: The impacts of global climate change on different regions are diverse and complex. Research on climate and hydrological elements in large-scale watersheds can reveal the manifestations and impact mechanisms of climate change in specific regions, providing scientific basis for formulating regional response strategies. Poyang Lake is one of the important sub basins of the Yangtze River, and its hydrological changes directly affect the water quantity and quality of the Yangtze River. Based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform, daily precipitation and temperature data of the Poyang Lake Basin from 1981 to 2022 were obtained. Ten precipitation indicators and six temperature indicators were selected, and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin were analyzed using linear trend method, moving average method, and Mann-Kendall trend test method. The research shows that from 1981 to 2022, the annual precipitation and the precipitation in flood season in Poyang Lake Basin will not increase significantly, and the number of regular precipitation days will not decrease significantly, but the number of rainstorm days and rainstorm will increase significantly. Precipitation shows a spatial trend of increasing in the east and decreasing in the west, increasing in the north and decreasing in the south, and decreasing from the northeast to the southwest of the watershed. The temperature in the Poyang Lake Basin is showing a warming trend, with severe interannual variations in extreme temperatures (highest and lowest), a significant increase in extreme high temperature days, and a decrease in low temperature days. The temperature in the watershed shows a spatial pattern of high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas, with significant spatial variations in persistent temperature indicators influenced by geographical location factors. The research results can enhance the understanding of the hydrological cycle characteristics and changes in the Poyang Lake Basin, and provide reference for the development of water resource management and flood and drought disaster prevention measures in the basin under the influence of climate change.

       

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