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    赵丽平,邢西刚,何晓燕,等. 基于频率统计法的短历时可能最大降水估算[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(8):17−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023327
    引用本文: 赵丽平,邢西刚,何晓燕,等. 基于频率统计法的短历时可能最大降水估算[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(8):17−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023327
    ZHAO Liping,XING Xigang,HE Xiaoyan,et al.Estimation of short-duration possible maximum precipitation based on frequency statistics method[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(8):17−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023327
    Citation: ZHAO Liping,XING Xigang,HE Xiaoyan,et al.Estimation of short-duration possible maximum precipitation based on frequency statistics method[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(8):17−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023327

    基于频率统计法的短历时可能最大降水估算

    Estimation of short-duration possible maximum precipitation based on frequency statistics method

    • 摘要: 短历时可能最大降水(PMP)是核电厂设计排水设施时的主要依据。在分析某滨海核电厂厂址区域暴雨特性、天气成因和站点资料的基础上,采用P-Ⅲ型曲线和矩法进行不同频率短历时降雨数值统计计算,然后通过不同历时10000年一遇降雨设计值与24 h10000年一遇设计值进行比值计算分析得到不同短历时可能最大降水,最后通过与国内外特大暴雨记录和其他核电厂短历时PMP成果进行对比分析,表明计算结果合理,可为其他地区短历时PMP 分析计算提供参考和借鉴。

       

      Abstract: The Short-duration probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the main basis for the design of drainage facilities in nuclear power plants. Based on the analysis of the rainstorm characteristics, weather causes and site data of a coastal nuclear power plant site, this paper used the Pearson-III curve and moment method to calculate the numerical statistics of short-duration rainfall with different frequencies, and then calculated and analyzed the ratio of the design value of different durations of once-in-ten-thousands-year rainfall and the design value of 24-hour once-in-ten-thousands-year rainfall to obtain the possible maximum precipitation with different short durations. Finally, by comparing with the records of heavy rainstorms at home and abroad and the short-duration PMP results of other nuclear power plants, the calculation results were reasonable, which can provide reference for the analysis and calculation of short-duration PMP in other regions.

       

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