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    胡小红, 左德鹏. 陕南山区月河流域暴雨洪水特征变化分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(4): 82-88. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021072
    引用本文: 胡小红, 左德鹏. 陕南山区月河流域暴雨洪水特征变化分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(4): 82-88. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021072
    HU Xiaohong, ZUO Depeng. Variation analysis on the characteristics of storm flood in Yuehe River basin, Shaannan mountain area[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(4): 82-88. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021072
    Citation: HU Xiaohong, ZUO Depeng. Variation analysis on the characteristics of storm flood in Yuehe River basin, Shaannan mountain area[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(4): 82-88. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021072

    陕南山区月河流域暴雨洪水特征变化分析

    Variation analysis on the characteristics of storm flood in Yuehe River basin, Shaannan mountain area

    • 摘要: 汉江一级支流月河位于暴雨洪水频发的陕南山区,其暴雨洪水特征分析对于灾害高发的山区流域防灾减灾工作具有重要指导意义。选用非参数Mann-Kendall方法和滑动t检验对月河流域1960-2012年的降雨径流序列及极端降水指数进行时间趋势分析和突变检验;基于流域历史18场次单峰洪水过程结合遗传算法推求流域退水曲线,并对年极值洪水过程进行地表洪水成分和地下洪水成分分割;最后,对突变前后两个时期暴雨洪水特征进行灰色关联分析。结果表明,月河流域近53年的年降水量和径流深分别呈一定程度增加和减少趋势;年径流序列突变点发生在1985年;洪水成分中地下径流平均占比从1985年之前的21%变为1985年以后的17%,而1985年以后降雨与洪水的关系减弱,表明流域降雨径流关系的平稳性受到气候变化及人类活动的影响。

       

      Abstract: The Yuehe River, one of the major tributaries of the Hanjiang River, is located in the Shaannan mountain area of Shaanxi Province, which is prone to heavy rains and floods. The study on the consistency of rain and flood could provide an important guide for prevention and reduction of natural disasters in mountainous disaster-prone areas. In this paper, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Moving-t test methods were used to detect the temporal trends and mutation of hydrological variables and extreme precipitation indices from 1960 to 2012. The recession curve was derived from the historical flood series by the genetic algorithm, and the flood hydrographs were separated. Meanwhile, the variation characteristics of rainfall and floods and its relationship were analyzed by the grey relational analysis method. The results showed that the annual rainfall and runoff in Yuehe River Basin during the recent 53 years exhibited insignificant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. The abrupt change point of annual runoff series occurred in 1985. The average proportion of underground runoff in total runoff changed from 21% before 1985 to 17% after 1985. The relationship between rainfall and flood became weakened after 1985, indicating that the stationarity of flood in the study area was challenged by climate change and human activities.

       

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