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    王喜娜, 王先伟, 黄华兵, 刘春霞. 基于GIS的风暴潮灾害风险预警方法研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(10): 15-20. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021065
    引用本文: 王喜娜, 王先伟, 黄华兵, 刘春霞. 基于GIS的风暴潮灾害风险预警方法研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(10): 15-20. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021065
    WANG Xina, WANG Xianwei, HUANG Huabing, LIU Chunxia. Research on storm surge disaster risk early warning method based on GIS[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2021, 31(10): 15-20. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021065
    Citation: WANG Xina, WANG Xianwei, HUANG Huabing, LIU Chunxia. Research on storm surge disaster risk early warning method based on GIS[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2021, 31(10): 15-20. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021065

    基于GIS的风暴潮灾害风险预警方法研究

    Research on storm surge disaster risk early warning method based on GIS

    • 摘要: 风暴潮灾害是对沿海地区破坏性巨大的一种海洋灾害,风暴潮灾害监测预警是极为重要的减灾非工程措施。目前,国家海洋环境预报中心发布的风暴潮灾害预警主要是风暴潮增水预警,即增水值是多少,但风暴潮灾害事件的影响取决于风暴增水、增水发生时天文潮位、沿海地形、海堤高程及社会经济分布状况等多方面因素,仅有风暴增水的预警不能直观地预见灾害即将带来的影响。提出基于GIS对风暴潮灾害事件影响进行评估的监测预警方法,并以201604号台风“妮妲”为例进行了说明。首先,通过对天文潮和风暴增水预报获取目标区域潮位预报;然后,基于Flood Area构建风暴潮漫滩淹没模型,对风暴潮漫滩淹没进行仿真模拟;最后,结合淹没范围、深度和社会经济数据,评估风暴潮灾害事件可能导致的受灾人口数和GDP损失,基于风暴潮灾害风险进行预警分级,该方法可以为风暴潮灾害事件的应急管理提供决策支持。

       

      Abstract: Storm surge is one of the most severe marine disasters in China. Early warning is a very important non-structural measure for disaster prevention and mitigation. Early warning information of storm surges issued in National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center only contains the water level variations caused by tropical cyclones. The severity of storm surge disaster is determined by the height of storm surge, the phase or the height of astronomical tide,coastal topography,embankment height and socio-economic distribution. Only the early warning of storm surge can not directly predict the impact of the disaster. A monitoring and early warning method for evaluating the impact of storm surge disaster events based on GIS is proposed, which is illustrated by taking typhoon "Nida" as an example. The total tide level prediction in the target area is obtained through the prediction of astronomical tide and storm surge; The storm surge floodplain inundation model is constructed based on the Flood Area to simulate the storm surge floodplain inundation; Combined with the inundation range, depth and socio-economic data, the number of affected people and GDP loss that may be caused by storm surge disaster events are evaluated, and the early warning classification is carried out based on storm surge disaster risk. This method can provide decision support for the emergency management of storm surge disaster events.

       

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